TOI Correspondent from Washington: Bipartisan consensus and support for US-India relations in both Washington DC and New Delhi means both countries remain largely unaffected by change of leadership. Even so, given the past bonhomie between PM Narendra Modi and Donald Trump during the latter's first term as President, there is bound to be a degree of delight at his return to the White House, tinged with some apprehension at his hardline trade stance and loose cannon approach to geopolitical engagement.
The biggest relief for India will come on the Russia front, where it has had to carefully calibrate its ties with Moscow so as to not irk Washington, where anti-Russia sentiment ran high in the Biden administration. Trump's rather more convivial approach to Russia, with his personal liking for Vladimir Putin, will relax New Delhi. India will also be relieved not to receive tedious lectures on human rights and religious freedom from a Democratic dispensation hidebound in its approach to these issues.
Also Read: Complete coverage on US elections
In fact, hardliners in the BJP-led government will be delighted to have at the White House helm a man who has transparently expressed pro-Hindu sentiments, and expect him to take a tough stand on Islamic fundamentalism. Shalli Kumar, a Trump acolyte who first sensitized him to Hindu revivalism in 2015, had this to say on Tuesday: "Man was vilified for 8 years. Russia collusion, impeachment, they tried to put him in jail. But the country finally spoke. Clear victory... This is the most fabulous Diwali gift for Hindus worldwide, Bharat, PM Modi and citizens of the United States."
And since the Modi-Trump terms will be almost co-terminus (assuming Modi does not lose his parliamentary majority or is ousted/resigns before his term) there will be more joint rallies (which Trump loves) and love-fest in various US and Indian cities. In what then appeared to be a political overreach at a 2018 rally in Houston, Modi appeared to have endorsed a second term for Trump amid cries of "Ab ki baar, Trump sarkar" -- only to see him lose to Biden in 2020. He's back, four years later.
Also read: Live updates on US elections
Where India will be leery is on the trade front, where the MAGA supremo's hardline reciprocal tariff approach, often expressed publicly and abrasively, could cause plenty of heartburn in New Delhi, which prefers to deal with such matters discreetly. Still, like most of the world, New Delhi will also be aware that Trump can be won with a mix of flattery and accommodation. A few thousand Harley Davidson bikes will lubricate the relationship better than a hundred tortured parleys by trade delegations. Trump prides himself as a dealmaker and Modi is all too cued into "dhando" the Gujarati term for business deals.
Trump's tough love approach to Beijing will also suit India on the geo-political front. But his emphasis on recapturing manufacturing that has fled to China could also mean a beady Washington eye on manufacturing that is migrating from China to India.
Another area India will be wary of is immigration policies under a Trump II administration. Trump himself has largely taken aim at illegal immigration and occasionally expressed support for legal immigration, including once asserting that foreign students who graduate from US universities should automatically get green cards. But some of his MAGA minions who will be in his inner circle are hardline anti-immigrant, with policies aimed at constraining even skilled guest worker visas such as H1B. Given his pledges to begin large-scale deportation of illegal immigrants starting Day One in the White House, expect many more plane loads of undocumented Indian immigrants to land in New Delhi in 2025.
Most of all, India will be apprehensive of Trump's loose cannon approach to geo-politics in the subcontinent with little awareness of history or patience for granular details. He is, in the words of one former diplomat, "kaan ka kaccha." New Delhi will remember the alacrity with which he offered to mediate on the Kashmir issue in July 2019 during a meeting with then Pakistan Prime Minister Inram Khan in the White House, claiming Modi had asked him to intervene, even though it was not true. There will be plenty of such unexpected snafus; Trump is not one for niceties. Many Trump supporters see virtue in such an approach. Predictability is a terrible thing. Of course the other side wants predictability. Trump is not predictable,” Richard Grenell, Trump’s former Director of National Intelligence and a prospective Secretary of State under Trump II, told the Financial Times.
But while New Delhi has the nous to navigate such wrinkles, many other countries will have much more difficult days ahead. Ukraine for one can expect to be thrown under the bus, having to sue for peace by ceding territory to Russia as the Biden administration’s money spigot runs dry under Trump II. Not that some Ukrainians– who feel the Biden administration gave them enough weapons to defend and die but not enough to win – would mind. Practical heads in both Kiev and Moscow will be hoping Trump can bring about a peace deal he has promised. Ditto the Middle-East.
Taiwan too will have to quickly re-assess its equities and capabilities, since Trump has bluntly stated that the US requires what is virtually “protection money” before it ensures Taiwan is not attacked by China. NATO faces the same problem, aggravated by Trump’s disdain for the organisation. Some countries will be delighted with his “no-war” approach, while those who have thrived long as a US protectorate will be dismayed.
The biggest relief for India will come on the Russia front, where it has had to carefully calibrate its ties with Moscow so as to not irk Washington, where anti-Russia sentiment ran high in the Biden administration. Trump's rather more convivial approach to Russia, with his personal liking for Vladimir Putin, will relax New Delhi. India will also be relieved not to receive tedious lectures on human rights and religious freedom from a Democratic dispensation hidebound in its approach to these issues.
Also Read: Complete coverage on US elections
In fact, hardliners in the BJP-led government will be delighted to have at the White House helm a man who has transparently expressed pro-Hindu sentiments, and expect him to take a tough stand on Islamic fundamentalism. Shalli Kumar, a Trump acolyte who first sensitized him to Hindu revivalism in 2015, had this to say on Tuesday: "Man was vilified for 8 years. Russia collusion, impeachment, they tried to put him in jail. But the country finally spoke. Clear victory... This is the most fabulous Diwali gift for Hindus worldwide, Bharat, PM Modi and citizens of the United States."
And since the Modi-Trump terms will be almost co-terminus (assuming Modi does not lose his parliamentary majority or is ousted/resigns before his term) there will be more joint rallies (which Trump loves) and love-fest in various US and Indian cities. In what then appeared to be a political overreach at a 2018 rally in Houston, Modi appeared to have endorsed a second term for Trump amid cries of "Ab ki baar, Trump sarkar" -- only to see him lose to Biden in 2020. He's back, four years later.
Also read: Live updates on US elections
Where India will be leery is on the trade front, where the MAGA supremo's hardline reciprocal tariff approach, often expressed publicly and abrasively, could cause plenty of heartburn in New Delhi, which prefers to deal with such matters discreetly. Still, like most of the world, New Delhi will also be aware that Trump can be won with a mix of flattery and accommodation. A few thousand Harley Davidson bikes will lubricate the relationship better than a hundred tortured parleys by trade delegations. Trump prides himself as a dealmaker and Modi is all too cued into "dhando" the Gujarati term for business deals.
Trump's tough love approach to Beijing will also suit India on the geo-political front. But his emphasis on recapturing manufacturing that has fled to China could also mean a beady Washington eye on manufacturing that is migrating from China to India.
Another area India will be wary of is immigration policies under a Trump II administration. Trump himself has largely taken aim at illegal immigration and occasionally expressed support for legal immigration, including once asserting that foreign students who graduate from US universities should automatically get green cards. But some of his MAGA minions who will be in his inner circle are hardline anti-immigrant, with policies aimed at constraining even skilled guest worker visas such as H1B. Given his pledges to begin large-scale deportation of illegal immigrants starting Day One in the White House, expect many more plane loads of undocumented Indian immigrants to land in New Delhi in 2025.
Most of all, India will be apprehensive of Trump's loose cannon approach to geo-politics in the subcontinent with little awareness of history or patience for granular details. He is, in the words of one former diplomat, "kaan ka kaccha." New Delhi will remember the alacrity with which he offered to mediate on the Kashmir issue in July 2019 during a meeting with then Pakistan Prime Minister Inram Khan in the White House, claiming Modi had asked him to intervene, even though it was not true. There will be plenty of such unexpected snafus; Trump is not one for niceties. Many Trump supporters see virtue in such an approach. Predictability is a terrible thing. Of course the other side wants predictability. Trump is not predictable,” Richard Grenell, Trump’s former Director of National Intelligence and a prospective Secretary of State under Trump II, told the Financial Times.
But while New Delhi has the nous to navigate such wrinkles, many other countries will have much more difficult days ahead. Ukraine for one can expect to be thrown under the bus, having to sue for peace by ceding territory to Russia as the Biden administration’s money spigot runs dry under Trump II. Not that some Ukrainians– who feel the Biden administration gave them enough weapons to defend and die but not enough to win – would mind. Practical heads in both Kiev and Moscow will be hoping Trump can bring about a peace deal he has promised. Ditto the Middle-East.
Taiwan too will have to quickly re-assess its equities and capabilities, since Trump has bluntly stated that the US requires what is virtually “protection money” before it ensures Taiwan is not attacked by China. NATO faces the same problem, aggravated by Trump’s disdain for the organisation. Some countries will be delighted with his “no-war” approach, while those who have thrived long as a US protectorate will be dismayed.
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