In a stunning comeback, Donald Trump defeated his rival Kamala Harris, marking one of the most unexpected reversals in American electoral history. Just four years after his exit from the White House and a failed attempt to overturn the 2020 election, Trump’s return has captured global attention. This development has prompted Indian business tycoon Harsh Goenka to analyse its potential impact on India. Taking to X (formerly Twitter), Goenka outlined how Trump’s policies could reshape India-U.S. relations, from trade and strategic partnerships to supply chains and visa woes.
Here’s how Goenka sees a Trump-led America affecting the Indian economy and its global position:
Economic Resilience
India’s economy, primarily fueled by domestic demand, may show resilience against a potential U.S. slowdown, helping to sustain stable growth even if global pressures rise.
Supply Chain Advantage
With Trump likely to push US firms away from China, India could emerge as a strong alternative for manufacturing investments. This shift may drive companies to establish supply chains in India to diversify risks, creating growth in jobs and industrial output.
Lower Commodity Prices
Trump’s focus on fossil fuels could lead to lower oil prices, a big advantage for India as it would reduce its import costs, alleviate inflationary pressures, and potentially stabilize the rupee.
Trade Pressure
Goenka warns that India might face pressure to increase U.S. imports. As India exports more to the U.S. than it imports, Trump’s administration might push for more American goods entering the Indian market or threaten higher tariffs on Indian exports.
Currency Management
India’s financial policies, including substantial foreign exchange reserves and exchange rate management, might cushion any pressure if Trump takes a hard line on countries he perceives as “currency manipulators.”
Immigration Policies
A Trump administration could tighten H-1B visa rules, which would impact Indian professionals. However, Goenka notes that India’s tech firms have adapted in recent years, reducing reliance on these visas by hiring more locally in the U.S.
Strengthened Strategic Ties
With both the U.S. and India viewing China’s influence as a challenge, Trump’s return could bolster defense and strategic partnerships between the two nations, reinforcing India’s role as a key U.S. ally in Asia.
Flexibility on Russia
Trump’s softer stance on Russia might allow India greater flexibility in balancing its defense and energy ties with Moscow, without facing significant pressure from Washington.
Reduced Human Rights Pressure
If Trump places less emphasis on human rights issues, it may ease diplomatic tensions between India and the U.S., fostering smoother government-to-government interactions.
Increased Influence of Indian Americans
The Indian-American community, growing in both size and influence, could shape U.S.-India policies on issues like immigration and trade more substantially under Trump’s leadership.
Here’s how Goenka sees a Trump-led America affecting the Indian economy and its global position:
Economic Resilience
India’s economy, primarily fueled by domestic demand, may show resilience against a potential U.S. slowdown, helping to sustain stable growth even if global pressures rise.
Supply Chain Advantage
With Trump likely to push US firms away from China, India could emerge as a strong alternative for manufacturing investments. This shift may drive companies to establish supply chains in India to diversify risks, creating growth in jobs and industrial output.
Lower Commodity Prices
Trump’s focus on fossil fuels could lead to lower oil prices, a big advantage for India as it would reduce its import costs, alleviate inflationary pressures, and potentially stabilize the rupee.
Trade Pressure
Goenka warns that India might face pressure to increase U.S. imports. As India exports more to the U.S. than it imports, Trump’s administration might push for more American goods entering the Indian market or threaten higher tariffs on Indian exports.
Currency Management
India’s financial policies, including substantial foreign exchange reserves and exchange rate management, might cushion any pressure if Trump takes a hard line on countries he perceives as “currency manipulators.”
Immigration Policies
A Trump administration could tighten H-1B visa rules, which would impact Indian professionals. However, Goenka notes that India’s tech firms have adapted in recent years, reducing reliance on these visas by hiring more locally in the U.S.
Strengthened Strategic Ties
With both the U.S. and India viewing China’s influence as a challenge, Trump’s return could bolster defense and strategic partnerships between the two nations, reinforcing India’s role as a key U.S. ally in Asia.
Flexibility on Russia
Trump’s softer stance on Russia might allow India greater flexibility in balancing its defense and energy ties with Moscow, without facing significant pressure from Washington.
Reduced Human Rights Pressure
If Trump places less emphasis on human rights issues, it may ease diplomatic tensions between India and the U.S., fostering smoother government-to-government interactions.
Increased Influence of Indian Americans
The Indian-American community, growing in both size and influence, could shape U.S.-India policies on issues like immigration and trade more substantially under Trump’s leadership.
Effect on India with Trump’s new administration:
— Harsh Goenka (@hvgoenka) November 6, 2024
1. Economic Resilience: India’s domestic-demand-driven economy may buffer the impact of any US economic slowdown, sustaining steady growth.
2. Supply Chain Advantage: With Trump’s focus on reducing dependence on China, India could…
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