This year’s assembly election in Jharkhand is going to be crucial for both the NDA and the INDIA bloc in many ways. Enthused by its victory in Haryana, the BJP is leaving no stone unturned to oust the Hemant Soren-led government in the eastern state. Senior BJP leaders are camping in the state, keeping a close watch on the day-to-day campaigns.
A BJP victory in Jharkhand will send out a message that the party has regained momentum after the Lok Sabha setback. Meanwhile, Jharkhand CM and JMM leader Soren is trying to achieve what no other party has managed in the state so far — a repeat of the government. Assembly polls will also be a test of Soren’s popularity among the tribal voters, as some senior tribal leaders are leaving the party to join the BJP.
For Congress, the election is all about gaining relevance after the Haryana setback and repeating its 2019 performance, when the party won 16 assembly seats. In a bipolar election with both alliances having a consolidated vote bank in their favour, a slight shift towards any alliance can change the game. ET lists some factors at play in the upcoming assembly polls:
THE TRIBAL FACTOR
Tribals account for 26.21% of Jharkhand’s population, and out of 81 assembly seats, 28 are reserved for the Scheduled Tribes (STs). This is where BJP has been facing a problem. In 2019, of the 28 seats, the party could win only two while JMM and Congress won 25 (JMM 19 and Congress 6). One seat was won by Babulal Marandi’s JVM, which has now merged with the BJP. In this year’s Lok Sabha election, BJP couldn’t win any of the five ST seats.
The BJP is working hard to hit the strong tribal vote bank of JMM. Over the last few days, several senior tribal leaders of the JMM have joined the BJP. Former CM Champai Soren, who is a strong tribal leader from Kolhan region, is also with the BJP.
Shibu Soren’s daughter-in-law, Sita Soren, and former CM Madhu Koda’s wife, Geeta Koda, are also with BJP and all are contesting assembly elections. Apart from that, BJP has fielded senior party tribal leaders, including Babulal Marandi and former CM Arjun Munda’s wife, Meera Munda, to name a few. BJP has also raised the issue of demographic change due to alleged infiltration from Bangladesh.
Senior party leaders, including PM Narendra Modi, have raised the issue of declining tribal population and migration among tribals due to lack of job opportunities.
The JMM is largely banking on the charisma of party founder Shibu Soren, also known as ‘ Dishom Guru’, and CM Hemant Soren and his wife Kalpana Soren, the star campaigners for the party.In his poll meetings, Hemant Soren has been raising the issue of ‘Mool Niwasi vs Bahri (Tribal vs Outsiders), trying to build a narrative, terming the BJP as an “outsider” party. The JMM has also given tickets to former BJP leader Louis Marandi and some others who had left the BJP after being denied a ticket.
ALLIANCE ARITHMETIC
The learnings from the 2019 polls have forced both the NDA and INDIA bloc to take along allies, even smaller ones to avoid division of votes. In 2019, BJP and AJSU parted ways due to differences over seat sharing. They lost six seats — BJP lost four and AJSU two — as they put up candidates against each other.
On the other hand, JMM fought in alliance with Congress and RJD winning 47 seats. In Jharkhand, BJP has allied not just with AJSU (giving them 10 seats), but also given two seats to JDU and one seat to LJP (Ram Vilas), for the first time.
The two Bihar parties do not have much presence in the state. But the BJP doesn’t want to lose seats due to division of votes among the allies. The JMM, apart from Congress and RJD, has also allied with CPI (ML) for the assembly polls. JMM is contesting on 42 seats, Congress on 29, RJD on six and CPI (ML) on 4 seats.
LOCALISED CAMPAIGN
Both BJP and JMM have repeated most of their MLAs. Hence, it is more about focusing on region-wise local issues. There are five divisions in Jharkhand — Kolhan, Santhal Pargana, North Chotanagpur, South Chotanagpur and Palamu. In 2019, the INDIA bloc had taken a lead over BJP in all regions, except North Chotanagpur and Palamu. At 25, North Chotanagpur has the highest number of seats. Here, JMM and Congress won 10, BJP won 10, and the rest went to ‘others’.
In Palamu’s nine seats, BJP won five and the JMM-Congress combine won three, while one went to ‘others’.Of the 32 seats of Kolhan and Santhal Pargana, the two tribaldominated regions of the state, BJP could win only four, while JMM-Congress won 26. This time, the parties are focusing on region-wise campaigns. BJP is making demographic change in tribal population an election issue in the Santhal region.
In Kolhan, its campaign is centred around Champai Soren while highlighting how his ouster was an insult to the people of Kolhan. In other regions, issues like migration and jobs are dominant while in the urban pockets, the party is highlighting corruption allegations during the five years of the Soren government.
The JMM and Congress, on the other hand, are focusing on state government schemes launched over the last five years. In tribal regions, Hemant Soren talks about the ‘Sarna Code’ and ‘Khatiyan’ to decide who the real inhabitants of the state are. Outside the tribal belt, his campaign is largely focused on cash benefit schemes and government jobs.
WOMEN VOTERS
This is perhaps the first assembly election in Jharkhand when women are at the centre of the campaign. The significance of women voters can be understood with the fact that out of 81 seats, there are 32 where the number of women voters is higher than the males. Interestingly, in all the 28 ST reserved seats, female voters outnumber their male counterparts.
About 56% of first-time voters aged between 18 and 19 years are women. No wonder then that the segment is generating enough interest for the NDA and INDIA bloc to plan campaigns around them. There is intense competition between BJP and JMM as to which party can offer a better deal to women voters.
In August this year, the JMM government launched ‘Maiyan Samman Scheme’, under which some 50 lakh women aged between 18 and 60 years receive Rs 1,000 every month. Apart from that, the government is also giving Rs 1,000 per month pension to women and men above 60.
The BJP, in its manifesto, has announced the ‘Gogo Didi’ scheme, under which it has promised to give Rs 2,100 per month to women in the state. After the BJP’s promise, Soren, in his last cabinet meeting, approved an increase in ‘Maiyan Samman’ from Rs 1,000 per month to Rs 2,500 per month, starting from December. For the last one month, Kalpana Soren has been targeting women voters through her ‘Maiyan Samman Yatra’ in all regions of the state.
NDA
Strengths
INDIA Bloc
Strengths
Several leaders left party for BJP, leading to a challenge in JMM strongholds
A BJP victory in Jharkhand will send out a message that the party has regained momentum after the Lok Sabha setback. Meanwhile, Jharkhand CM and JMM leader Soren is trying to achieve what no other party has managed in the state so far — a repeat of the government. Assembly polls will also be a test of Soren’s popularity among the tribal voters, as some senior tribal leaders are leaving the party to join the BJP.
For Congress, the election is all about gaining relevance after the Haryana setback and repeating its 2019 performance, when the party won 16 assembly seats. In a bipolar election with both alliances having a consolidated vote bank in their favour, a slight shift towards any alliance can change the game. ET lists some factors at play in the upcoming assembly polls:
THE TRIBAL FACTOR
Tribals account for 26.21% of Jharkhand’s population, and out of 81 assembly seats, 28 are reserved for the Scheduled Tribes (STs). This is where BJP has been facing a problem. In 2019, of the 28 seats, the party could win only two while JMM and Congress won 25 (JMM 19 and Congress 6). One seat was won by Babulal Marandi’s JVM, which has now merged with the BJP. In this year’s Lok Sabha election, BJP couldn’t win any of the five ST seats.
The BJP is working hard to hit the strong tribal vote bank of JMM. Over the last few days, several senior tribal leaders of the JMM have joined the BJP. Former CM Champai Soren, who is a strong tribal leader from Kolhan region, is also with the BJP.
Shibu Soren’s daughter-in-law, Sita Soren, and former CM Madhu Koda’s wife, Geeta Koda, are also with BJP and all are contesting assembly elections. Apart from that, BJP has fielded senior party tribal leaders, including Babulal Marandi and former CM Arjun Munda’s wife, Meera Munda, to name a few. BJP has also raised the issue of demographic change due to alleged infiltration from Bangladesh.
Senior party leaders, including PM Narendra Modi, have raised the issue of declining tribal population and migration among tribals due to lack of job opportunities.
The JMM is largely banking on the charisma of party founder Shibu Soren, also known as ‘ Dishom Guru’, and CM Hemant Soren and his wife Kalpana Soren, the star campaigners for the party.In his poll meetings, Hemant Soren has been raising the issue of ‘Mool Niwasi vs Bahri (Tribal vs Outsiders), trying to build a narrative, terming the BJP as an “outsider” party. The JMM has also given tickets to former BJP leader Louis Marandi and some others who had left the BJP after being denied a ticket.
ALLIANCE ARITHMETIC
The learnings from the 2019 polls have forced both the NDA and INDIA bloc to take along allies, even smaller ones to avoid division of votes. In 2019, BJP and AJSU parted ways due to differences over seat sharing. They lost six seats — BJP lost four and AJSU two — as they put up candidates against each other.
On the other hand, JMM fought in alliance with Congress and RJD winning 47 seats. In Jharkhand, BJP has allied not just with AJSU (giving them 10 seats), but also given two seats to JDU and one seat to LJP (Ram Vilas), for the first time.
The two Bihar parties do not have much presence in the state. But the BJP doesn’t want to lose seats due to division of votes among the allies. The JMM, apart from Congress and RJD, has also allied with CPI (ML) for the assembly polls. JMM is contesting on 42 seats, Congress on 29, RJD on six and CPI (ML) on 4 seats.
LOCALISED CAMPAIGN
Both BJP and JMM have repeated most of their MLAs. Hence, it is more about focusing on region-wise local issues. There are five divisions in Jharkhand — Kolhan, Santhal Pargana, North Chotanagpur, South Chotanagpur and Palamu. In 2019, the INDIA bloc had taken a lead over BJP in all regions, except North Chotanagpur and Palamu. At 25, North Chotanagpur has the highest number of seats. Here, JMM and Congress won 10, BJP won 10, and the rest went to ‘others’.
In Palamu’s nine seats, BJP won five and the JMM-Congress combine won three, while one went to ‘others’.Of the 32 seats of Kolhan and Santhal Pargana, the two tribaldominated regions of the state, BJP could win only four, while JMM-Congress won 26. This time, the parties are focusing on region-wise campaigns. BJP is making demographic change in tribal population an election issue in the Santhal region.
In Kolhan, its campaign is centred around Champai Soren while highlighting how his ouster was an insult to the people of Kolhan. In other regions, issues like migration and jobs are dominant while in the urban pockets, the party is highlighting corruption allegations during the five years of the Soren government.
The JMM and Congress, on the other hand, are focusing on state government schemes launched over the last five years. In tribal regions, Hemant Soren talks about the ‘Sarna Code’ and ‘Khatiyan’ to decide who the real inhabitants of the state are. Outside the tribal belt, his campaign is largely focused on cash benefit schemes and government jobs.
WOMEN VOTERS
This is perhaps the first assembly election in Jharkhand when women are at the centre of the campaign. The significance of women voters can be understood with the fact that out of 81 seats, there are 32 where the number of women voters is higher than the males. Interestingly, in all the 28 ST reserved seats, female voters outnumber their male counterparts.
About 56% of first-time voters aged between 18 and 19 years are women. No wonder then that the segment is generating enough interest for the NDA and INDIA bloc to plan campaigns around them. There is intense competition between BJP and JMM as to which party can offer a better deal to women voters.
In August this year, the JMM government launched ‘Maiyan Samman Scheme’, under which some 50 lakh women aged between 18 and 60 years receive Rs 1,000 every month. Apart from that, the government is also giving Rs 1,000 per month pension to women and men above 60.
The BJP, in its manifesto, has announced the ‘Gogo Didi’ scheme, under which it has promised to give Rs 2,100 per month to women in the state. After the BJP’s promise, Soren, in his last cabinet meeting, approved an increase in ‘Maiyan Samman’ from Rs 1,000 per month to Rs 2,500 per month, starting from December. For the last one month, Kalpana Soren has been targeting women voters through her ‘Maiyan Samman Yatra’ in all regions of the state.
NDA
Strengths
- Stronghold among OBC, upper caste voters & some SC voters
- Best positioned to cash anti incumbency against govt
- Aggressive campaign pitch with several poll promises
- Struggling to make inroads into tribal areas
- Lack of state-level leadership to mobilise campaign
- Rebellion at few places after ticket distribution
INDIA Bloc
Strengths
- Stronghold over tribals & minorities accounting for 45% vote
- Implementation of popular govt schemes
- Hemant Soren leading campaign with his wife
- Apart from tribal & minority communities, no other visible support groups.
- The alliance got 39% votes in Lok Sabha polls despite tribal % minority support
Several leaders left party for BJP, leading to a challenge in JMM strongholds
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