India to receive above normal rainfall in 2025 with neutral El Nino conditions, IMD says

The India Meteorological Department on Tuesday announced that the country is likely to experience above-average monsoon rains in 2025, with neutral El Nino conditions.

Addressing a news conference, M. Ravichandran, the Secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said that the monsoon rains are expected to reach 105% of the long-term average this year.

This projection signals a potentially fruitful agricultural season, which is crucial for the livelihoods of millions of farmers across the nation. Notably, 52% of the net cultivated area in India relies on the monsoon rains, making it essential for both crop production and the replenishment of reservoirs critical for drinking water and power generation.

The Met Department said that the above-normal seasonal rainfall is very likely over most parts of the country except some areas over Northwest India, Northeast India and South Peninsular India, where below-normal rainfall is likely.

However, despite the positive forecast, it is important to note that normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform distribution across the country. Climate change has led to increased variability in precipitation patterns, with a decline in the number of rainy days and an increase in heavy rain events, contributing to frequent droughts and floods.

The annual monsoon season in India typically commences around June 1, beginning in the southern state of Kerala, and lasts until mid-September. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) defines normal rainfall as falling between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month period.

In the lead-up to the monsoon, parts of India are currently facing extreme heat, with a significant number of heat wave days expected from April to June. This situation could strain power grids and lead to water shortages, highlighting the critical nature of the upcoming monsoon season for the nation's overall well-being.